Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order
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- Create Date：2021-10-14 08:51:25
- Update Date：2025-09-06
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- Author：Colin Kahl
- ISBN：1250275741
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Summary
Two of America's leading national security experts offer the most definitive account of the global impact of COVID-19 and the political shock waves it will have on the US and the world order in the 21st Century。
"Informed by history， reporting， and a truly global perspective， this is an indispensable first draft of history and blueprint for how we can move forward。"
--Ben Rhodes
The COVID-19 crisis is the greatest shock to world order since World War II。 Millions have been infected and killed。 The economic crash caused by the pandemic is the worst since the Great Depression， with the International Monetary Fund estimating that it will cost over $9 trillion of global wealth in the next few years。 Many will be left impoverished and hungry。 Fragile states will be further hollowed out， creating conditions ripe for conflict and mass displacement。 Meanwhile， international institutions and alliances already under strain before the pandemic are teetering， while the United States and China， already at loggerheads before the crisis， are careening toward a new Cold War。 China's secrecy and assertiveness have shattered hopes that it will become a responsible stakeholder in the international order。
Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright's Aftershocks is both a riveting journalistic account of one of the strangest years on record and a comprehensive analysis of the pandemic's ongoing impact on the foundational institutions and ideas that have shaped the modern world。 This is the first crisis in decades without a glimmer of American leadership and it shows--there has been no international cooperation on a quintessential global challenge。 Every country has followed its own path--nationalizing supplies， shutting their borders， and largely ignoring the rest of the world。 The international order the United States constructed seven decades ago is in tatters， and the world is adrift。 None of this came out of the blue。 Public health experts and intelligence analysts had warned for a decade that a pandemic of this sort was inevitable。 The crisis broke against a global backdrop of rising nationalism， backsliding democracy， declining public trust in governments， mounting rebellion against the inequalities produced by globalization， resurgent great power competition， and plummeting international cooperation。
And yet， there are some signs of hope。 The COVID-19 crisis reminds us of our common humanity and shared fate。 The public has， for the most part， responded stoically and with kindness。 Some democracies--South Korea， Taiwan， Germany， New Zealand， among others--have responded well。 America may emerge from the crisis with a new resolve to deal with non-traditional threats， like pandemic disease， and a new demand for effective collective action with other democratic nations。 America may also finally be forced to come to grips with our nation's inadequacies， and to make big changes at home and abroad that will set the stage for opportunities the rest of this century holds。
But one thing is certain: America and the world will never be the same again。
"Informed by history， reporting， and a truly global perspective， this is an indispensable first draft of history and blueprint for how we can move forward。"
--Ben Rhodes
The COVID-19 crisis is the greatest shock to world order since World War II。 Millions have been infected and killed。 The economic crash caused by the pandemic is the worst since the Great Depression， with the International Monetary Fund estimating that it will cost over $9 trillion of global wealth in the next few years。 Many will be left impoverished and hungry。 Fragile states will be further hollowed out， creating conditions ripe for conflict and mass displacement。 Meanwhile， international institutions and alliances already under strain before the pandemic are teetering， while the United States and China， already at loggerheads before the crisis， are careening toward a new Cold War。 China's secrecy and assertiveness have shattered hopes that it will become a responsible stakeholder in the international order。
Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright's Aftershocks is both a riveting journalistic account of one of the strangest years on record and a comprehensive analysis of the pandemic's ongoing impact on the foundational institutions and ideas that have shaped the modern world。 This is the first crisis in decades without a glimmer of American leadership and it shows--there has been no international cooperation on a quintessential global challenge。 Every country has followed its own path--nationalizing supplies， shutting their borders， and largely ignoring the rest of the world。 The international order the United States constructed seven decades ago is in tatters， and the world is adrift。 None of this came out of the blue。 Public health experts and intelligence analysts had warned for a decade that a pandemic of this sort was inevitable。 The crisis broke against a global backdrop of rising nationalism， backsliding democracy， declining public trust in governments， mounting rebellion against the inequalities produced by globalization， resurgent great power competition， and plummeting international cooperation。
And yet， there are some signs of hope。 The COVID-19 crisis reminds us of our common humanity and shared fate。 The public has， for the most part， responded stoically and with kindness。 Some democracies--South Korea， Taiwan， Germany， New Zealand， among others--have responded well。 America may emerge from the crisis with a new resolve to deal with non-traditional threats， like pandemic disease， and a new demand for effective collective action with other democratic nations。 America may also finally be forced to come to grips with our nation's inadequacies， and to make big changes at home and abroad that will set the stage for opportunities the rest of this century holds。
But one thing is certain: America and the world will never be the same again。
Reviews
Lynn
，
Very good overview of politics just before， during and what the authors foresee after the pandemic。 The USA is the most volatile and changeable of the countries， but several have changed from Democratic to autocratic in recent years。 The opposite situation is highlighted by Australia and South Korea which instituted strict public health measures while keeping democracy strong。
Matt Fitz
，
I started last year working as a legal advisor for the military organization responsible for national security in the homeland （North America being its area of responsibility （AOR））。 As a result of the pandemic， we stood up a command to respond nationally to the pandemic。 Pandemics absolutely have an impact on national security and transnational security cooperation。 As the world becomes more globally-dependent on each other for the movement of people， goods， capital， and information - we have t I started last year working as a legal advisor for the military organization responsible for national security in the homeland （North America being its area of responsibility （AOR））。 As a result of the pandemic， we stood up a command to respond nationally to the pandemic。 Pandemics absolutely have an impact on national security and transnational security cooperation。 As the world becomes more globally-dependent on each other for the movement of people， goods， capital， and information - we have to view the matter outside of domestic isolation and want other nations to do the same。 That's an imperative in my estimation。This book captured my attention when I listened to an interview with the author， because it addresses the "where we are" question on a global scale from an American lens。 The author referred to it as a "blueprint" because we're still in the thick of things。 Thus， in military parlance it's not an AAR （After Acton Report）， but an IPR - （In Progress Review）。 Coincidentally and fittingly， IPR can also mean "incident prevention and response" or "installation personnel readiness。" What the authors contend is we saw both positive and negative with the global response to the pandemic。 There were some great moments of trans-national cooperation and assistance。 However， there was a lot of inward-thinking and protectionist actions as some state actors saw the opportunity to coalesce more totalitarian powers and others sought to either capitalize economically or prevent economic disaster。 I'll leave it to other readers to decide wherein on the spectrum the US fits。This book provides a good historical and geopolitical overview going back to the flu pandemic of 1918 as well as other outbreaks， including the recent SARS outbreak that led to the intent for greater global cooperation on future viral storms。 Unfortunately， that framework nearly collapsed as countries pulled away from each other for self-protection。 This book is a nice aggregation of the loose-end events that occured over the last 2 years。 There were a lot of "oh-yeah - I remember that" moments for me - and it was helpful to align them with other events and then see them all from the perspective of hindsight。The authors don't intend to focus on finger-pointing and blaming。 They're doing what IPRs and AARs are designed for。 Adjusting what can be adjusted。 Stopping what doesn't work。 Considering other alternatives with new information and fewer assumptions。 All of this is helpful for the next pandemic， which is likely not a century away。 The authors ask leaders and the public to really consider （from a global perspective） from this interim spot - what is the "tail" of the pandemic。 What does it look like？ How do we get there？ And what do we do once there？ 。。。more
Andre
，
A difficult book to read。 Not solely because it's a lot of rather dry material， but because of what it says about humanity in general and our "elite leaders" in particular。 Summary: the global response to COVID-19 was a shit show。 It is a moral indictment on humanity that we couldn't collectively get our shit together when things were falling apart and help a） those most in need and b） each other in a cooperative fashion。 It was also a moral failure from a Stoic perspective: lots of focus on wha A difficult book to read。 Not solely because it's a lot of rather dry material， but because of what it says about humanity in general and our "elite leaders" in particular。 Summary: the global response to COVID-19 was a shit show。 It is a moral indictment on humanity that we couldn't collectively get our shit together when things were falling apart and help a） those most in need and b） each other in a cooperative fashion。 It was also a moral failure from a Stoic perspective: lots of focus on what you can't control， not much on what you can， and not much clear thinking about what should be done to actually improve the situation。 This book is 345 pages of lots and lots of details of pandemic response from around the world。 It is a lot of reporting， with not much explicit analysis。 There is some implicit analysis， mostly when the authors talk about which countries were "successful" but they don't spell out what measures they are using。 One presumes case counts， and by extension deaths。 That is after all the consensus of what mattered （and still does as of Sept 2021）。 But is that really what matters？ There is no mention of excess deaths until a passing mention on page 320 with no explanation of what excess deaths means， how it is determined， and why it is important。 People get sick every year and people die from those illnesses， but if the excess deaths are within a "reasonable" boundary why would you shut down the entire world？ Kind of important。 The premise of this book is that the crisis of the pandemic accelerated already ongoing changes on the geopolitical stage。 Nations tending towards populism went more that way， nations tending （or already） authoritative went further。 Poverty， inequality， etc degraded back to where they were 10 years ago。 This should really be no great surprise， when crises come up people， communities， cultures and nations tend to turn inward。 This being a big crisis， partly self inflicted， amped that up。 Why do I say "self inflicted？" On page 215 （and you can see this in other coverage of the pandemic） there is a quote from a WHO official， "the only time a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganize， regroup， rebalance your resources， protect your health workers who are exhausted， but by and large， we'd rather not do it。" This was the CDC's advice before the pandemic as well， based on experience with past pandemics。 But we did it anyway？ Why？ Because it "worked" for China。 It seems that the countries who performed "best" （by case counts of course） were those that had recent， previous experience with pandemics， learned what to do， and then stuck to those plans。 E。g。 Taiwan， and South Korea。 Strangely Canada （my home and native land） which had experience with SARS， had a plan， etc。 still abandoned those plans early on in our response。 What this suggests to me is the quote by Hopf， “Hard times create strong men。 Strong men create good times。 Good times create weak men。 And， weak men create hard times。” Here we are with hard times and weak men （and women）。 Of course we failed。 I did want to touch upon some of the wording choices; they are odd at times。 I'll give 2 examples， but there were enough to make me take notice。 1） when talking about the virus when it reaches a developing world country （Ecuador？） and that lockdowns are no good （people have to work or they starve） the virus was "seeping through the cracks。" Uh， better analogy would be to say it was like a forest fire。 2） "great power rivalry made the pandemic more likely and harder to contain。" Harder to contain sure （except no one learned you can't contain it）， but more likely？ How so。 Earlier in the book they point out that 2-5 zootrophic viruses emerge each year， occasionally some tear through populations and become epidemics， possibly pandemics。 What does "great power rivalry" have to do with that， unless we're talking bioweapons （which we aren't）。 。。。more
Regan
，
While it reads more like a textbook it is an excellent read。 The authors do not focus solely on how Trump botched the United States' COVID response， but how virtually every other country came from behind and some have not caught up yet。 They do focus on China causing the initial turmoil and subsequent deaths because they were hungry for power and withheld important information。 They do not do it in a nasty or bashing manner， but explain in detail how each country responded and where the threads While it reads more like a textbook it is an excellent read。 The authors do not focus solely on how Trump botched the United States' COVID response， but how virtually every other country came from behind and some have not caught up yet。 They do focus on China causing the initial turmoil and subsequent deaths because they were hungry for power and withheld important information。 They do not do it in a nasty or bashing manner， but explain in detail how each country responded and where the threads to others intertwined。 At 355 pages it is chock full of information and not a quick read。 Heavily annotated with notes it is a well researched must read。 I can see it being used as a textbook in any of the sciences classes including Sociology。 。。。more
ManOfLaBook。com
，
For more bookish posts please visit https://www。ManOfLaBook。comAftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright takes a look at the global impact of COVID-19， including the political outcomes for the future。 Mr。 Kahl and Mr。 Wright are America national security expects。It’s important to realize that we’re still far away from the end of COVID-19， but books about the mishandling of the pandemic on a global level are starting to come out。 Aft For more bookish posts please visit https://www。ManOfLaBook。comAftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright takes a look at the global impact of COVID-19， including the political outcomes for the future。 Mr。 Kahl and Mr。 Wright are America national security expects。It’s important to realize that we’re still far away from the end of COVID-19， but books about the mishandling of the pandemic on a global level are starting to come out。 Aftershocks: Pandemic Politics and the End of the Old International Order by Colin Kahl and Thomas Wright is certainly one of them。Unlike other books I read， such as Preventable， this one touches on the international community as well， not the US specifically。 The book is well outlined， and furthermore sourced to a fault。The year 2020 has been a strange one， some people certainly fared well… I felt as if I aged five years。 The authors point out that this is the first crisis in several decades lacking American leadership， as well as international cooperation。 Furthermore， the authors assess that the damage to United States prestige and diplomatic power done by the Trump Administration’s actions will forever hinder America’s soft power and trust among allies。The book was very informative， as well as very readable。 The authors go to great lengths to make sure all of their information is， indeed， sourced。 If not from an academic work specifically， then from a person who spoke “on the record”， for the most part。The book discusses the past， present， and future of many countries and their readiness。 Equally important， the success and failures are also being discussed in an analytical， apolitical manner。That being said， this book is not all doom and gloom。 The concerns going forward are discussed towards the end in a very efficient manner。Whether or not COVID-19 is going to have the significant geopolitical ramifications the book states remains to be seen。 However， we can already see the signs on the wall for the next pandemic。 。。。more
Bruce
，
This is a terrific book - a clear， compelling read， rich with new facts and new analysis。 The first and likely to be the best account of the geopolitics of Covid。 As we strive to make sense of this dreadful episode， this is a must read。
Audrey
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